HURRICANES

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 05N21W. The ITCZ continues from 05N21W to the Equator along 40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N-08N between 16W-48W.

Gulf Of Mexico

A cold front extends from a Louisiana 1007 mb low pressure center to the Texas-Mexico border. A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough is from a 1000 mb low pressure center,at 21N95W to NE Honduras. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the western Gulf north of 26N and west of 91W. Winds are SE fresh to strong in the SE Gulf of Mexico with seas 6-7 ft. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker with seas 4-6 ft. Areas of haze and smoke from agricultural fires are covering most of the western half of the Gulf of Mexico including in the coastal plains of Mexico.

For the forecast, the front will shift eastward across the northern Gulf through early Sun, then stall and weaken gradually through Mon. Upper-level disturbances moving from W to E will maintain active weather over the northern Gulf through most of the weekend. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh return flow will dominate the basin, except pulsing to locally strong near the Yucatan Peninsula and the Bay of Campeche through Sat night. Winds will slightly weaken Sun into early next week as the pressure gradient relaxes. Meanwhile, areas of haze and smoke due to agricultural fires in Mexico continue across most of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche.

Caribbean Sea

A surface trough across N Central America is helping to force fresh to strong SE winds over the NW Caribbean Sea. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient is producing only moderate or weaker trades. Seas are 6-8 ft over the NW Caribbean and 4-6 ft elsewhere. No significant deep convection is occurring over the Caribbean Sea today. Areas of haze and smoke from agricultural fires are covering the NW Caribbean Sea including the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras will persist through Sun, reaching near gale-force this evening into Sat morning and again Sat night. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore Colombia through Sun night. Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere through early next week. High pressure from the eastern Atlantic will ridge westward Wed and Wed night while strengthening some. A tightening gradient between the ridge and relatively lower pressure in the southwestern Caribbean is expected to lead to increasing trade winds over most of the central and eastern Caribbean at that same time. Meanwhile, rather dense smoke due to agricultural fires in Central America continues across areas of the northwestern Caribbean, and is reducing the visibility in the Gulf of Honduras.

Atlantic Ocean

A weak cold extends from 31N63W southwestward to the coast of Florida near 27N80W. North of 27N east of the front to 60W, winds are SW fresh with seas 5-7 ft. Scattered showers are occurring from 26N-31N west of 75W. Ridging north of the area along with low pressure along the monsoon trough/ITCZ is forcing NE to E moderate to locally fresh trades south of 20N west of 25W. Seas in this area are 5-7 ft. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker with seas 3-5 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will move slowly eastward, and shift east of 55W early Mon. Active weather is expected to continue ahead of the front through Sun. Fresh southerly winds ahead of the front will continue through Fri afternoon, then become moderate Fri night through Sat afternoon, then diminish further. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas are expected through Sun night as weak high pressure extends E to W roughly along 24N-25N. A new front will sink southward into the waters offshore of Georgia and NE Florida early Mon and move southeastward and weaken through late Tue. A residual trough may linger from near 30N71W to the central Bahamas Wed and Wed night.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Cwl/Ja